Heating Costs to Rise More Than Expected: Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecast to 7%
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has raised its year-end 2026 inflation forecast from 6.5% to 7%. The announced parameters for heating and hot water tariff increases were higher than those previously factored in by the regulator.
The forecast revision was explained by Samigjon Inogamov, Director of the Monetary Policy Department at the Central Bank, during a press conference on November 4.
According to him, the rise in heating tariffs had already been included in the previous inflation estimate. However, after the specific parameters were announced, the calculations had to be updated. These changes were one of the factors behind maintaining the key rate at 14%.
Nodirbek Achilov, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, clarified that the 7% forecast already incorporates all announced changes in regulated prices, including heating and hot water tariffs.
Meanwhile, an increase in the key rate was not discussed at the meeting. The Board considered two options: keeping it at 14% or reducing it to 13.5%.
The regulator views the direct impact of tariff changes as predominantly one-time. Maintaining a tight monetary policy is expected to limit secondary effects—such as the spread of price increases to other goods and services and the growth of inflation expectations.
The 7% forecast refers to the overall annual increase in consumer prices, not the extent of utility tariff hikes.
