How Kazakhstan's National Fund expenditures may affect the tenge exchange rate
Kazakhstan plans to allocate 6.5 trillion tenge from the National Fund by the end of 2029. Economists believe that phased financing will reduce the risk of sharp exchange rate fluctuations.
The funds will be used for the construction and modernization of social, transport, and engineering facilities. Out of the total amount, 1.5 trillion tenge is earmarked for social projects in 2026 and the first two months of 2027.
Economist Arman Beisembayev notes that the procurement of imported equipment and materials may increase demand for foreign currency. At the same time, operations by the National Bank to sell foreign currency may boost its supply and smooth out exchange rate fluctuations.
Financial analyst Andrey Chebotaryov believes that the gradual transfer of funds will limit their impact on the foreign exchange market. According to Beisembayev's assessment, external factors, including a decline in oil prices, may also affect the exchange rate.
